Wednesday, December 28, 2022

The Return of the Yellow Card 2021

Nikolay Kalinin analyses the reasons behind the Liberal Democrats’ success in the 2021 Chesham and Amersham by-election; is Boris Johnson about to suffer further at the hands of the ‘yellow peril’?

A month after the Conservatives obliterated Labour in Hartlepool, the Liberal Democrats have struck back by winning Chesham and Amersham, a Conservative stronghold since its creation in 1974.


The Liberal Democrat candidate Sarah Green won 56.7% of the vote, compared to the Conservatives 35.5% of the vote; this is not surprising, considering the fact that 55% of the constituency’s voters supported remaining in the EU in 2016, which reflects the region’s more liberal, middle-class electorate.


Although Brexit was still a prevalent issue during the campaign, the HS2 was a more major concern in the lead-up to the election, as many individuals within the constituency were concerned that the government’s plans to remove the locals’ rights to decide on developments would lead to the railway system being built in the Chilterns. Home County areas like Chesham and Amersham were the place where Reform UK was able to make gains back in 2019 due to their promise to scrap the HS2, and it’s clear that the Lib Dems capitalised on that ‘NIMBY’ attitude.


The demographics have also been influential in determining the outcome, since many within the area are young, middle-class liberal voters who have moved out of London and who were more likely to vote Remain in 2016.


Not only is this the greatest thing to happen to Lib Dems in a long time, but also the victory has shown that the “blue wall” in Southern England is not unbreakable, a fact that was teased back in May when the party lost several councillors in strongholds such as Tunbridge Wells, Surrey and Chipping Norton, and also when they lost the Oxfordshire council.


The Lib Dems ability to appeal to the locals’ concerns regarding HS2 should show Labour MPs the importance of appealing to the needs of the people in their constituency; at the same time, it also should be of serious concern to Boris Johnson, because even though he can bring down the red wall, the opposition parties can do the same.


Much of this is because according to Ed Davey, the people in traditionally-Conservative constituencies “feel they’re being ignored by the Conservatives, taken for granted.” One southern Conservative MP further elaborated by stating: “There’s an element that our party is trying too hard to be Brexiteers”.


The defeat of the Conservatives in the by-election should be taken seriously by the public and by the politicians, because this could be a foreshadowing to further defeats of Conservatives in the south of England – especially the Home Counties – as the party tries to appeal to more Northern working-class voters, which will definitely alienate the more traditional base of the Conservative party in the South who are more liberal.


Ed Davey Chesham and Amersham blue wall
Sir Ed Davey celebrated his party’s win in Chesham and Amersham – where his party’s candidate Sarah Green got 21,517 votes (56.7% vote share) as opposed to the Conservative Party’s Peter Fleet’s 13,489 (35.5% vote share) – by hammering at a wall of blue bricks in the style of Timmy Mallett. Overturning a 16,000 Conservative majority with 8,028 more votes than her rival, Green increased her party’s percentage share by 30.4%.
In the by-election, Labour came off even worse than the Tories with just 622 votes and of her win Sarah Green remarked: “Tonight the voice of Chesham and Amersham is unmistakable. Together we have said, ‘enough is enough, we will be heard and this government will listen.’” The by-election was caused by the death in April of former Welsh Secretary Dame Cheryl Gillan. In 2019, she retained the seat with more than half of the vote. But the Conservative majority has been steadily decreasing since the 2015 General Election, when it was 23,920, with UKIP coming second.
Nikolay Kalinin
Nikolay Kalinin
Nikolay Kalinin is a blogger who has been writing articles published on the automotive site ‘DriveTribe’ since July 2020. Previously, he ran his own blog about politics and culture in Russia.


  1. Lib Dems need to go into coalition with Keir Starmer. Sir Keir and Sir Ed vs. Boris Johnson, easy peasy… Two knights against one pawn.


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